Thinking Complexity

Curriculum

4 Sections
36 Lessons
30 Hours

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Chapter 1 - Introducing complexity
Hello everybody! Welcome to the first chapter of our “thinking complexity” class. In this chapter we will be looking at what we mean by complexity, why we sometimes have so much trouble dealing with it and how a systems perspective can help us better comprehend complex situations. As we go we will speak a little latin, discover the butterfly effect and meet a French philosopher and an English scientist. Let's get to it :)
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Chapter 2 - Thinking in systems
Welcome to chapter 2. In this chapter you will learn more about feedback: a key concept in systems and complexity theory. We will see that many natural, social and business phenomena are driven by reinforcing and balancing feedback. We wrap-up the chapter with a case study on obesity. Unit 8 explains how you can use free online software to tell and share the systemic story of a complex situation. Throughout the chapter we will talk about fashions, swarms and stampedes, we will play checkers and boil a frog. Sounds interesting? Let's get started :)
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Chapter 3 - Mapping the dynamics of complexity
Welcome to chapter 3. In this chapter we will study accumulations and non-linear relationships in complex systems. We explore how they contribute to both the speed of change over time and the unexpected and often frustrating behaviors we observe in complex situations such as thresholds and tipping points. Bonus unit: Unit 4 explains how you can use free online software to simulate the behavior of a complex situation. This unit is optional. At the end of the chapter we look at the complex problem of climate change. Let's get started!
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Chapter 4 - Living with complexity
Welcome to chapter 4 There is a common adage that “History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes”, and this is also true of systemic structures. Did you know that the structure that underlies a school yard fight is similar to that behind a commercial price war or an armed conflict between two nations? We will see that there are a small number of systemic stories that can be found at work in a number of different situations in the real world. They will help us quickly understand a complex situation and find leverage points. We will also learn why management thought needs to evolve and move into the systems age. Along the way we will visit Rome, the South China Sea, Greece and Wall Street. Let's get to it!
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2.7 Putting the pieces together: multi-loop structures

Key points

Complex, difficult to understand behavior emerges out of the combination of reinforcing and balancing feedback loops.
It is almost impossible to predict outcomes of some multi-loop structures.
When positive and negative loops are combined, a variety of patterns are possible.
The most commonly observed pattern is an s-shaped curve: positive feedback loop leads to initial exponential growth, and then a negative feedback loop takes over and dampens the growth.
A manager’s job is not just to keep the reinforcing loops turning, but it also involves identifying the negative feedback loops that are acting as brakes on growth and finding ways of weakening or eliminating their influence.

1. Watch the video

2. Do the exercise

Draw a multiple loop structure. This exercise will help you practice looking for multiple loops at work in a situation.

This article reports on a slowdown in Starbucks’ sales in the US. Your task is to draw a systemic structure with two loops: a reinforcing loop that is the motor of Starbucks’ same-store sales growth and the balancing loop from new competition that has recently slowed growth.

Hint: You can base your work on the Netflix illustration from the video.

A suggested solution is provided in the references.

3. Study the lesson readings

Polarities. A short text that questions and refines our definition of loop polarities.

Additional materials

Example solution. This is a suggested worked solution for the additional exercise “Draw a multiple loop structure”.
Video sources and bibliography. The web sites, attributions and sources cited in the video “Putting the pieces together: multi-loop structures”.
The video transcript.

Quiz 2.6

Thinking Complexity

Curriculum

2.7 Putting the pieces together: multi-loop structures