Thinking Complexity

Curriculum

4 Sections
36 Lessons
30 Hours

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Chapter 1 - Introducing complexity
Hello everybody! Welcome to the first chapter of our “thinking complexity” class. In this chapter we will be looking at what we mean by complexity, why we sometimes have so much trouble dealing with it and how a systems perspective can help us better comprehend complex situations. As we go we will speak a little latin, discover the butterfly effect and meet a French philosopher and an English scientist. Let's get to it :)
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Chapter 2 - Thinking in systems
Welcome to chapter 2. In this chapter you will learn more about feedback: a key concept in systems and complexity theory. We will see that many natural, social and business phenomena are driven by reinforcing and balancing feedback. We wrap-up the chapter with a case study on obesity. Unit 8 explains how you can use free online software to tell and share the systemic story of a complex situation. Throughout the chapter we will talk about fashions, swarms and stampedes, we will play checkers and boil a frog. Sounds interesting? Let's get started :)
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Chapter 3 - Mapping the dynamics of complexity
Welcome to chapter 3. In this chapter we will study accumulations and non-linear relationships in complex systems. We explore how they contribute to both the speed of change over time and the unexpected and often frustrating behaviors we observe in complex situations such as thresholds and tipping points. Bonus unit: Unit 4 explains how you can use free online software to simulate the behavior of a complex situation. This unit is optional. At the end of the chapter we look at the complex problem of climate change. Let's get started!
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Chapter 4 - Living with complexity
Welcome to chapter 4 There is a common adage that “History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes”, and this is also true of systemic structures. Did you know that the structure that underlies a school yard fight is similar to that behind a commercial price war or an armed conflict between two nations? We will see that there are a small number of systemic stories that can be found at work in a number of different situations in the real world. They will help us quickly understand a complex situation and find leverage points. We will also learn why management thought needs to evolve and move into the systems age. Along the way we will visit Rome, the South China Sea, Greece and Wall Street. Let's get to it!
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3.1 Levels, thresholds and tipping points

Key points

Accumulations are sometimes called stocks, levels or reservoirs.
Accumulations lie at the heart of systems.
Stocks (accumulations) can be measured at a point in time; they are not measured over time.
There are always stocks inside our systemic structures. and their level will determine the way the system functions.
A level may be a threshold or a tipping point, beyond which a significant and often unstoppable effect or change takes place.
We can show accumulations in our systemic structure as a box. The inflows and outflows into the stock are drawn as a pipe and tap.
The stock acts as a buffer to any outside shocks or actions.
The time it takes the stock to reach a critical or threshold level may create delays in a systemic structure.

1. Watch the video

2. Do the exercise

Find the stocks. This exercise will help you practice identifying stocks in a situation. This online news article is about the contaminated Sea of Kiev. How many stocks can you find in this article? Draw the stock and its main inflow.

Hint: Stocks are measured at a point in time, and not over time. You can refer to the document “Stocks and flows” in the additional materials.

A suggested solution is available in the additional materials section.

3. Study the lesson readings

Stocks and flows. This short text explains how to identify stocks and convert a causal loop into a stock and flow diagram.

Additional materials

Exercise – a suggested worked solution. This is a suggested worked solution for the additional exercise “Find the stocks”.
Video sources and bibliography. The web sites, attributions and sources cited in the video “Levels, thresholds and tipping points”.
The video transcript.

Summary – chapter 2

Thinking Complexity

Curriculum

3.1 Levels, thresholds and tipping points