Thinking Complexity

Curriculum

4 Sections
36 Lessons
30 Hours

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Chapter 1 - Introducing complexity
Hello everybody! Welcome to the first chapter of our “thinking complexity” class. In this chapter we will be looking at what we mean by complexity, why we sometimes have so much trouble dealing with it and how a systems perspective can help us better comprehend complex situations. As we go we will speak a little latin, discover the butterfly effect and meet a French philosopher and an English scientist. Let's get to it :)
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Chapter 2 - Thinking in systems
Welcome to chapter 2. In this chapter you will learn more about feedback: a key concept in systems and complexity theory. We will see that many natural, social and business phenomena are driven by reinforcing and balancing feedback. We wrap-up the chapter with a case study on obesity. Unit 8 explains how you can use free online software to tell and share the systemic story of a complex situation. Throughout the chapter we will talk about fashions, swarms and stampedes, we will play checkers and boil a frog. Sounds interesting? Let's get started :)
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Chapter 3 - Mapping the dynamics of complexity
Welcome to chapter 3. In this chapter we will study accumulations and non-linear relationships in complex systems. We explore how they contribute to both the speed of change over time and the unexpected and often frustrating behaviors we observe in complex situations such as thresholds and tipping points. Bonus unit: Unit 4 explains how you can use free online software to simulate the behavior of a complex situation. This unit is optional. At the end of the chapter we look at the complex problem of climate change. Let's get started!
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Chapter 4 - Living with complexity
Welcome to chapter 4 There is a common adage that “History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes”, and this is also true of systemic structures. Did you know that the structure that underlies a school yard fight is similar to that behind a commercial price war or an armed conflict between two nations? We will see that there are a small number of systemic stories that can be found at work in a number of different situations in the real world. They will help us quickly understand a complex situation and find leverage points. We will also learn why management thought needs to evolve and move into the systems age. Along the way we will visit Rome, the South China Sea, Greece and Wall Street. Let's get to it!
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3.3 Case study: stocks at the heart of causality

3.3 How stocks are at the heart of causality: the case of overfishing

Key points

Carrying capacity: the maximum population size that the environment can sustain indefinitely, given the food, habitat and other necessities available in the environment.
A fishing zone is sustainable when inflows into a stock are equal to outflows.
When outflows are greater than inflows, the stock will fall.
If the negative net flow increases every year then the fish stock will decline at an accelerating rate.
Computer software can be used to simulate how a complex system may evolve over time and the impact of alternative courses of action.

1. Watch the video

2. Do the exercise

Draw a stock and flow diagram. This exercise will help you practice identifying stocks and their flows. This online news article is about falling morale and a shortage of soldiers in the British Armed Forces. Your task is to identify the stocks and draw the stock and flow diagram.

Hint: Stocks are measured at a point in time, and not over time. Flows are measured in the same units of measurement as a stock, but over time. You can refer to the document “Stocks and flows” in the additional materials for unit 1 of this chapter.

A suggested solution is available in the additional materials section.

Additional materials

The Fishery – Insightmaker model. The complete working simulation model of the fishery.
Exercise – a suggested worked solution. This is a suggested worked solution for the additional exercise “Draw a stock and flow diagram”
Video sources and bibliography. The web sites, attributions and sources cited in the video “How stocks are at the heart of causality: the case of overfishing”.
The video transcript.

Quiz 3.2