Thinking Complexity

Curriculum

4 Sections
36 Lessons
30 Hours

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Chapter 1 - Introducing complexity
Hello everybody! Welcome to the first chapter of our “thinking complexity” class. In this chapter we will be looking at what we mean by complexity, why we sometimes have so much trouble dealing with it and how a systems perspective can help us better comprehend complex situations. As we go we will speak a little latin, discover the butterfly effect and meet a French philosopher and an English scientist. Let's get to it :)
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Chapter 2 - Thinking in systems
Welcome to chapter 2. In this chapter you will learn more about feedback: a key concept in systems and complexity theory. We will see that many natural, social and business phenomena are driven by reinforcing and balancing feedback. We wrap-up the chapter with a case study on obesity. Unit 8 explains how you can use free online software to tell and share the systemic story of a complex situation. Throughout the chapter we will talk about fashions, swarms and stampedes, we will play checkers and boil a frog. Sounds interesting? Let's get started :)
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Chapter 3 - Mapping the dynamics of complexity
Welcome to chapter 3. In this chapter we will study accumulations and non-linear relationships in complex systems. We explore how they contribute to both the speed of change over time and the unexpected and often frustrating behaviors we observe in complex situations such as thresholds and tipping points. Bonus unit: Unit 4 explains how you can use free online software to simulate the behavior of a complex situation. This unit is optional. At the end of the chapter we look at the complex problem of climate change. Let's get started!
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Chapter 4 - Living with complexity
Welcome to chapter 4 There is a common adage that “History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes”, and this is also true of systemic structures. Did you know that the structure that underlies a school yard fight is similar to that behind a commercial price war or an armed conflict between two nations? We will see that there are a small number of systemic stories that can be found at work in a number of different situations in the real world. They will help us quickly understand a complex situation and find leverage points. We will also learn why management thought needs to evolve and move into the systems age. Along the way we will visit Rome, the South China Sea, Greece and Wall Street. Let's get to it!
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2.4 The exponential growth trap

Key points

Many complex problems are related to growth and they usually start with an exponentially growing phase.
Reinforcing feedback generates exponential growth.
The danger with reinforcing feedback and exponential growth is that we rarely notice before it is too late.
“Exponential growth bias” is the tendency to linearize exponential functions.
We can anticipate exponential growth by calculating the “doubling time” : the time it takes for the performance variable to double in size.

1. Watch the video

2. Do the exercise

State debt and doubling time. In October 2015, Bloomberg.com published an alarming article about France’s growing debt entitled “Government Debt in France and Italy Swells to Euro-Era Highs”. France’s national debt at the end of 2015 was 2096.9 billion euros. It had grown at an average rate of 5.76% since 1995. Based on these numbers, how long will France’s national debt take to double in size?

Hint: Use the formula for doubling time.

A worked solution is in the additional materials section.

3. Study the lesson readings

Calculating doubling time. Not sure where the equation for doubling time comes from? This document explains the maths. If you don’t like the maths, that’s fine – just remember the equation (70/R).

Additional materials

Exercise – example solution. This is a suggested worked solution for the additional exercise “State debt and doubling time”.
Video sources and bibliography. The web sites, attributions and sources cited in the video “The exponential growth trap”.
The video transcript.

Quiz 2.3

Thinking Complexity

Curriculum

2.4 The exponential growth trap